Mike Mueller, Social Media.ist

As you may know, the Fed's are meeting today.
It's a two day meeting, where they'll announce tomorrow.
The statement will be released at 11:15 Pacific time.

So there's a pause in the markets today.
We've seen the 10 yr. react in a general upwards direction.
It opened this morning at 4.87%

It's still a matter of supply and demand but a simple and general rule to remember when it comes to rates is this:

Good economic news = Higher rates
Poor news = Lower rates

It's a gross generalization, and it still boils down to supply and demand, but it's something to put in the back of your head and think about.

There's a bunch of info hitting the markets this week.
Not only is it still "Earnings Season", there's a ton of data to be reported this week.
Most all of these play into what happens to rates!

How's this for a list of items to watch? 

Back to the Feds:
With each new report coming out, CPI, PPI, GDP, The Jobs Report, Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, and so on, the likelihood of the Feds lowering rates anytime soon has literally vaporized.

So, will they raise instead?
Don't expect it.
At least not this time.

Once again it's going to be not what the Feds do, it's what they say.
It's in the announcement that Fed Watchers will pay most attention.

For a live view of the rates, watch the 10 Year T-bond.

It's hard to find but here's a link to the 10 year on Yahoo's Bond page

 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETNX&t=1d

Remember, the 10 yr bond isn't what creates rates, but long term mortgage rates mirror what happens to the 10 yr. that's why we watch it!

It seems everywhere you turn around these days there is a new blog.
It's become one of our favorite buzzwords.

The corporate world has recently gotten into blogs.
Sports Blogs, Food Blogs, Infomercial Blogs...
The Today Show even has a blog!
Here's a thought: If Matt Lauer has something to say, why doesn't he just say it on TV? Why does he need a blog?

It seems everyone blogs these days. The blog is mainstream. It's all around us.
But what exactly is a blog?

A blog in simple terms is a software interface.
It allows normal people who do not know html or code to create pages on the internet.
That's a very powerful thing.

I could explain blogging and the dominate underlying technology of .php to normal people like this: "You type what you want to say here, and it shows up over there".
It really is as simple as that.
It's what you do here everyday!

The blog editors today are primarily "WYSIWYG".
That's pronounced as "wizzy-wig".
It's an acronym for "What You See Is What You Get".

That means that what you type, and how you place it, and what you do to it, is how it'll turn out.

And all this adds up to is that it's easy for normal people to create pages on websites with blogging, or the server side scripting that runs blogging (php).
By the way, php goes back to 1994 - it's nothing new.

What is new, is how this technology is being used and to what end.

Many many years ago I used to design Realtor websites as a sideline.
Many were and still are static sites.
They don't change much.

Using .php I designed the usual website but on the front page I included a section where the agent could blog into.
By using an interface I gave the agent a way to change their webpage on a daily basis!

"I'll be holding an open house at 123 Easy St today. come on by!"

I know, this doesn't seem like much today, but think back just 10 years ago.
What did your website do?

So technology and php may have changed the world.
That's a good thing.
But here's my bitch.

If you are going to blog that's great.
If you are going to blog about real estate because that's your job, your profession, your skill, or your marketing plan. That's even better!
Then just do it, and do it on a consistent basis!
(WOW, I just used two major marketing catch phrases in the space of a couple of sentences!)

BUT
And this is a big BUT
Do not cheapen what you do by trying to make money on the side.
You know what I'm talking about.

I'm talking about putting ads on your blog.

 Don't do it!

A blog is a great way to send out information to a mass audience.
It's a great way to send a message.
But I'll ask you this?
What kind of a message are you sending when you also include a revenue generating list of ads?

If you need help on blogging, setting up a blog, blogs as part of a marketing plan, feel free to contact me.
If you want to sell ad space on my blog, you've got the wrong man!

• How's your credit score?
• Do you have all three scores?
  
• Credit quality?
• Tradelines?
• Collections?
• Derogatories and the time since the last one?
• Past BK? How long ago?
  
• Are you full time permanently employed?
• How much of that $90,k is due to overtime?
• How much to Bonuses?
• Is that regular or scheduled?
• How long have you been on the job?
• How long in the line of business?
  
• How's your debt?
• How many accounts do you have open?
• How about remaining balances, are you maxed out?
• New accounts, how many of those do you have?
• Inquiries, how many recent inquiries show in the last 12 months?
• When we do this loan what will your back end debt ratio look like?
  
• What kind of property are you looking for?
• Single family, Condo, PUD, Manufactured Home, or Doublewide?
• Is the purchase going to be "as is" or fully disclosed?
• Seller concessions? If so how much and what?
• How much are you looking to put down?
• Seller Carry back?
• How does the Property appraise?
  
• What comps and where are those comps?
• Additions to the property?
• Were they done with a permit?
  
• Got assets? "No, sit back down and get dressed. I'm not talking about that!"
  
• How much do you have in reserves?
• Is that all in your name and for how long?
• How much is liquid?
• 401,k or IRA?
  
• Gift Money? How much and from who?
• Have enough cash to close?
• How much left over after that?
• How long do you plan to live there?
• And then what do you want to do?
  

As promised, here's a better look at the existing home sales numbers with an eye towards the bay area.

If you were watching the headlines yesterday, you saw the world coming to an end!
It's the natural sensationalistic thing to do.
Is that a word?
It should be!

Headlines like:

"Existing Home Sales Tumble in 2006"
"Existing Home Sales Hit 17-Year Low While Mortgage Rates Rise"
We even have the sky falling overseas,
"European Markets Fall On US Existing Home Sales Data, Weak Oils ..."

Headlines like that would lead you to believe.

In scanning the headlines an came across this little tidbit:
Two different news agencies, two different takes on the same story.



One says prices "Plunged", the other says they slipped "Modestly". Same numbers, same report, same day. Two sides to every coin right?

In the bay area here's how our numbers played out:

7,488 new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area last month.

That's an increase of 3.9 percent from November, but down 19.9 percent from December last year.
Over the year, you can see we're actually a bit higher than last January.

What's it all mean?
To the short term person, the flipper, the speculator:
Not so good news, best to have sold in June when prices hit there high.
Now you'll probably have to hold till this June again to get your price.
Rates are probably going to go up, not go lower.
This is a key indicator to the Feds, they'll look at this as a healthy adjustment.
Further lessening the likelihood of their lowering rates any time soon.
That impacts your buying ability, as well as your buyers ability.
If you are buying - buy now. The market probably isn't going to go lower and why wait?
Get in the game!

To the long term person, the buy and hold, the RE investor:
Nothing new, business as usual.
We're in it for the year over year.
We have an exit strategy, we know where we are going.
The market fluctuates because that what it does.

I've said it before.
We are special here in the bay area.
Not "little yellow bus" special, insulated from the rest of the nation special.
I'm all for investing and owning in the bay area!

Oh, and the new home sales should be coming out today.
I don't care.
Neither should you.
It's the most skewed and incorrect report we're hit with.
I'd tell you why but I'll save that for another day.